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How much does hype determine Oscar outcomes?

Tim Hillmann

Issue date: 2/5/08 Section: Arts & Society
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Juno, featuring quirky actress Ellen Page, is a film that is very deserving of an Oscar. It may be beat out by other films with advertisement and star power, though.
Media Credit: MCT campus
Juno, featuring quirky actress Ellen Page, is a film that is very deserving of an Oscar. It may be beat out by other films with advertisement and star power, though.

Everyone has had a movie ruined for them due to overhype, but can hype determine who will win the Oscars? This year it seems more than ever people are chatting it up about the science behind getting an Oscar.

Movies do not simply come out when they are completed. Marketing professionals will time when films are released based on several factors. As Anne Thompson from Priemere.com says, "A keen sense of timing can make all the difference in an Oscar campaign." Because companies are head by other parent companies films are released strategically so that similar films do not compete with each other from within a company. Traditionally blockbuster and sequel films, or as they are called in the industry "umbrella films," are planned to make the majority of profit for a company. These films are usually released during summer. Likewise, it is obvious that the most anticipated horror movies come out in fall and that the ever-popular Christmas movies come out around Thanksgiving. This leaves January and February with the traditional holiday leftover crap. Though you will occasionally see a risk taking film like "Cloverfield" around the same time. If you don't believe me, check out your local listings for the pathetic choices you have at the theatre this week. ("Meet the Spartans," case-in-point.)

Movies trailers have also come to play a large part in how much a film makes and how much hype it gets. Many films use more than half of their budget on marketing. However, depending on how much a film is advertised determines much of the hype behind it. While still highly anticipated due to the recent popularity of quirky independent films and "Superbad" star Michael Cera, "Juno" was under-advertised. However, through word of mouth and Internet buzz, those who did not see the film until recently, including academy voters, were disappointed in the film expecting a "Superbad" or "Little Miss Sunshine," which the film never set out to be. Oscar predictors say this may hurt "Juno"s chance at winning as much as it deserves.

Star power can also make or break a film. This year's "Charlie Wilson's War" had an all-star cast including Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, and Philip Seymour Hoffman. However, people expecting this year's big hit were disappointed in what turned out to be an O.K. film at best. There is a very fine line when it comes to the ratio of star power and quality of a film.

Therefore, despite my hatred for this boring film, I believe "No Country for Old Men" will sweep this year's Oscars. The film balances no-names with big stars and waited to get oscar-noms before it blew open its huge "BEST PICTURE, BEST EVERYTHING" marketing campaign. How can you argue with EVERYBODY saying it's the best picture of the year? But then again, will this hype ultimately make it seems like a shoe-in and have people voting for more deserving films like "Juno" and "There will Be Blood"?

Hopefully, for our sake, a film like "Atonement", a film the Academy traditionally eats up in their this-must-be-good-heads, lose to more deserving films like "Juno." Call me an anarchist, but I personally want to see some film completely slap the Academy across the face for once. Sorry, Kiera. The Oscars will be aired 5 PM on February 24th on ABC.
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